This new year market rally looks like the replacement for the end-of-year rally which failed to materialise. 2018 earnings growth estimations across the globe look solid thanks to a synchronised improvement in macroeconomic conditions.
Everything's fine! That at least was the impression from looking at consumer and company confidence figures, low inflation and persistently accommodating monetary policies. Consumption, investment and global trade should all help to extend this trend in 2018. What primarily sets indices apart in performance terms is...
Spain returned centre stage after Catalonia’s 3 separatist parties retained an overall majority in the Catalan parliament with 70 seats. But they only polled 48% of the popular vote compared to 52% for the unionists.
Markets were unsurprised by recent monetary policy meetings, but central bank takes on growth and inflation warrant some attention.
Sentiment was mixed at the beginning of the week with, on the one hand, the vote in favour of US tax reform and, on the other, deadlock over talks between the UK and Europe.
With persistently bullish economic statistics and confidence surveys at levels not seen in years, investors are gradually turning to inflation data and various financial stability reports.
Economic data remained upbeat on both sides of the Atlantic. In Europe, preliminary PMI surveys for November improved further to new highs, reflecting an economy which is continuing to gather speed. In the US, October’s durable goods orders pointed to a recovery in corporate investment, an indication which suggests...
European markets started the week by falling further but investors were then reassured by macroeconomic data reflecting strong growth in Europe and the US.
After a much more turbulent week and following an impressive series of rises, equity markets fell sharply last Thursday.
It was a week of central bank meetings, the lead-up to new Fed chair’s appointment and details on tax reform.
Markets had waited for weeks for ECB clarification but were finally convinced by Mario Draghi’s latest post-ECB meeting comments. Asset buying will be extended until the end of September 2018 at least, a decision which reinforces the idea that an initial benchmark rate rise will be put back until 2019 and sent the...
The tussle between Madrid and Catalonia dominated news this week. Following various ultimatums, both sides seemed to be moving towards a conflict. Carles Puigdemont refused to clearly declare independence but said he would if Madrid withdrew the region’s autonomous status and imposed direct rule. Mariano Rajoy’s...
Equity market trading was thin amid fresh low-volatility records. And yet global news flow was substantial and included the threat of Spain disintegrating, more noise and fury over North Korea, Turkish troops moving into Syria and Washington’s decision to question the US agreement with Iran over nuclear developments....
This week’s headline event was the political crisis following the Catalan referendum. Following violence during the vote and then the Spanish king’s uncompromising television address, all eyes turned to the separatists. The big question is whether they will go ahead and proclaim independence.
Volatility remained under control despite mixed election results in Germany, the dissolution of Japan’s lower chamber, comments from Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi, persistently high geopolitical tensions and the US tax reform project. Only emerging markets were hit this week by US dollar strength and higher US rates....
PMI data suggest global economic growth is still strong.
Since the beginning of September, the balance has clearly shifted in favour of equities and away from government bonds.
This week’s economic data provided confirmation that the synchronised global recovery was doing well but it was the ECB’s monetary committee meeting that dominated news. The press conference held no big surprises but delivered more detail.
Jackson Hole left investors none the wiser. They were expecting clues on the Fed’s tightening trajectory but Janet Yellen instead focused on threats from deregulation while Mario Draghi waxed philosophically on the risk of mounting protectionism.
Equity markets stabilised, adopting a wait-and-see attitude before investors return from holiday to face a period with numerous political and economic events. The Jackson Hole Symposium will see central bankers tackling the monetary policy issue.