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Macro HighlightsWhile the latest data suggest that economic growth in the eurozone is picking up a bit, political uncertainty is settling in as well. Sophie Casanova, one of the Paris-based economists of our Economic Research team, analyses the stakes of Italy’s constitutional referendum scheduled for this Sunday, 4 December.Learn more Macro HighlightsWhereas an upsurge in the value of the Swiss franc might prompt the Swiss National Bank to take new policy measures, the Chinese yuan has weakened against the dollar since the election of Donald Trump. The yuan’s depreciation has been moderate so far but could gain pace more than expected. These points are analysed by economist Matthias van den Heuvel, a member of our Economic Research team.Learn more Macro HighlightsAnalysis by Lisa Turk, economist and member of our Economic Research team, in the special edition of Macro Highlights on the US elections.Learn more AnalysisAccording to François Leonet, economist, specialist of emerging markets, GDP growth remains firm in emerging markets, mainly in Asia. Yet wide disparities persist between countries. In the Euro zone, Sweden’s central bank, like the Swiss National Bank, warned that it may further lower its already negative policy rate.Learn more Macro HighlightsAccording to Sophie Casanova, economist, member of our Economic Research team, the SNB’s discount rate will remain unchanged at -0.75%, for end-2017. Growth prospects in the Eurozone have turned up, although credit is not expanding. US GDP growth bounced back in Q3, as expected, supporting our expectation of an interest rate hike in December.
Learn more Macro HighlightsFrançois Léonet, economist, member of our Economic Research team, comments in the Macro Highlights of this week the China's GDP growth. With GDP growth stabilising at 6.7%, the government is likely to engage in less budgetary stimulus, which will in turn limit the 2017 growth outlook.Learn more AnalysisThe ECB was decisive in the upturn in the real estate market in the eurozone.Learn more Macro HighlightsThis week Sophie Casanova, economist, member of our Economic Research team, analyses the impact on sterling of Prime Minister May’s announcement that she will activate clause 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by end-March 2017, setting the ball rolling for Britain’s pullout from the European Union.
Learn more Macro HighlightsThe yuan will now be among the currencies in the IMF's Special Drawing Rights basket, an encouraging sign of China’s ongoing integration in the global financial system. Trust in the yuan will take time to build. In the short term, the Chinese currency should remain under pressure.Learn more Macro HighlightsThe low interest rate environment has led to a rise in debt levels among non-financial corporations. US companies have used the additional resources on share buybacks and dividends rather than fixed investment. The same may happen in Europe in the next few quarters, as debt issuance is sharply up among European companies.Learn more