Global Outlook 2015

Analysis - 1/13/2015

After four years of relative stability, the fall in the oil price should boost spending power in importing countries in 2015.

Consumers in both developed and emerging countries will enjoy lower energy bills. As for the small number of producer countries concerned by the oil price collapse, most, with the exception of Russia and Nigeria, have significant financial reserves so the overall economic impact from lost revenue will not be as great. (...)


Looking beyond the oil price, wage developments and job market trends – more than 3 million jobs were created in 2014- will play a decisive role in US household purchasing power and further growth. They will also dictate the shape of the Fed’s future monetary policy. (...)


Confidence has returned to some extent but it is still fragile and has yet to produce hard and fast results. 2015 looks more promising.

Europe should very soon start to benefit from the knock-on impact of the US recovery, especially as it is already gaining from the surge in the US dollar and cheaper energy prices. The re-introduction of a minimum wage in Germany will benefit 7 million people while boosting consumption. (...)


Japan’s economy went into recession in the second and third quarters of 2014 as a result of last April’s hike in consumption taxation. (...)

Emerging countries

Last November, the US Fed wound up its quantitative easing programme but policy will remain accommodating for some time to come. Fed chair Janet Yellen has adopted a cautious stance over employment arguing that the bank still needs to get unemployment lower. The fall in energy prices will give her even more leeway. (...)

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