Macro Highlights July 20th 2015

Economic outlook - 7/21/2015

Our Investment Research Department publishes a weekly newsletter with a round-up on the main economic developments and news flow.

The maintenance of low energy prices should help sustain the bull market in equities.

After stalling a dozen times, the marathon negotiations between the international community and Iran on its controversial nuclear programme have at last resulted in an agreement. In return for the lifting of sanctions the Islamic republic will be able to export its oil and be on the receiving end of foreign investment. If it brings 500,000 barrels of crude per day to market by 2016 (and even more thereafter), supply will obviously exceed demand. (...)

Britain’s economy may not be overheating but it has some of the symptoms.

Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, recently delivered his quarterly address to the UK parliament’s Treasury Committee. Noting that growth had systematically been above trend, he said that the British economy’s fine performance would soon make it possible to raise the base rate. (...)

The lifting of sanctions against Iran spells big changes for its economy and the region.

After years of negotiations between the P5+1 group and Iran on its nuclear programme, the agreement that was finally reached will reshape the economic and geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. In return for an end to the sanctions that have hobbled it for a decade, the Islamic republic guarantees that it will only develop atomic energy for peaceful purposes and will submit to multiple safeguard clauses. The sanctions imposed on Iran resulted not only from its nuclear programme; those relating to the financing of terrorist activity remain in force. (...)