Macro Highlights August 17th 2015

Analysis - 8/17/2015

Our Investment Research Department publishes a weekly newsletter with a round-up on the main economic developments and news flow.

Markets: with greece quieter, gold and oil are the new worries

A third bailout plan for Greece has been accepted by the Euro Zone’s finance ministers (Eurogroup. Here are the key points of the agreement.(...)

Euro zone: more effort is needed

Q2 GDP growth in the 19 countries that comprise the Euro Zone rose 0.3% compared with the first quarter, short of our 0.5% forecast. That said, year-on-year expansion was 1.2%, marking an extension of the pickup observed for a full year now. (...)

Turkey: the trials of forming a coalition

In early June the AK party of President Recep Erdoğan lost its parliamentary majority, leading to “horse trading” with the opposition factions to form a coalition government. Hopes for a link-up with the CHP (the main opposition party) were dashed recently due to disputes over immigration and education policy. This sent financial asset prices and the Turkish lira back down to near their post-election levels.The other major parties (the MHP and the pro-Kurdish HDP) announced that they would not join a coalition led by the AK. (...)

China: a currency war looks highly unlikely

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) last week announced that it was lowering the central rate of the band of fluctuation that it allows for the yuan/dollar pair, causing a wave of panic in international markets. (...)