Macro Highlights August 24th 2015

Economic outlook - 8/24/2015

Our Investment Research Department publishes a weekly newsletter with a round-up on the main economic developments and news flow.

Markets:  buy or sell, that is the question

Investors everywhere are watching equity benchmarks anxiously, trying to determine whether the current pullback will be short-lived—in which case this is a buying opportunity—or whether we are at the start of a bear market and there is still time to sell.

This is a tough question and to answer it a number of factors need to be considered. (...)

China: a new stampede to the exit

China’s flash manufacturing PMI for August brought the lowest reading since March 2009. With concern about the health of the Chinese economy growing, equity investors are again dumping their holdings and wiping out all the stockmarket’s gains year to date. But while the sell-off in June-July was mainly fuelled by local forces, such as retail investors unloading positions bought on credit, this time international developments seem to be playing a big role. (...)

United states: Attention stays focused on the fed

The minutes of the last FOMC meeting have reinforced our scenario of a rate hike in October rather than September. Further indications of this likelihood can be seen in selling by equity investors and in the renewed fall in two- and ten-year Treasury yields. (...)