Edmond de Rothschild has released its third edition of House View
Volatility made a big come back in May amid serious political tension. Investors sold stocks aggressively when Italy’s President refused to approve highly eurosceptic Paolo Savona as finance minister, thereby risking early elections which opinion polls suggested might actually increase support for the Lega.
The protectionist issue has not gone away and will probably be with us for some time, but the time has come for talks between the US, China and the European Union, as well as with Mexico and Canada over NAFTA. There have been some indications that agreements might be reached but not enough to warrant any further...
The last 20 years have seen serious upheavals in Europe’s financial markets and portfolio construction.
The risk of protectionism has resurfaced with a bang in recent weeks following Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports. The list has since been extended to a basket of Chinese goods although there have not yet been any details on which and for how much. Equity markets reacted by...
Our concerns that volatility was about to return led us to start 2018 with more neutral exposure to risk assets. There were two clearly identified sources of tension, fears of inflationary pressure in the US and the risk of a revival in protectionism.
Rarely has a financial environment been so clearly marked out. The synchronised global recovery continues apace without generating any excess or serious imbalances and inflation is still tame.
The global synchronised recovery continues, especially in Europe, even if China is showing signs of slowing due to tighter monetary policy.
Almost 30 years after the biggest property bubble in a developed country, Japan looks like a text-book case of chronic economic crisis. But recent economic data appear to contradict this view. Is Japan about to emerge from a long period of stagnation and deflation or is the country doomed to suffer more of the same?
Fundamentals are still so good that we cannot help wondering if the only worry today is that investors do not seem to be worried.