Weekly Economic Insights - 23 July 2018

Macro Highlights - 7/25/2018

Highlights of the week

Economist  insights:  Eurozone  GDP growth  forecasts  revised  downward by the European Commission as we anticipated

  • In the eurozone, the European Commission revised its GDP growth forecast downward for 2018 due to the euro, energy prices and the uncertainty related to trade tensions
  • These downward revisions, along with those of the IMF, are in line with our scenario of a deceleration in economic growth and the most recent figures for inflation, wages, construction and real estate

Focus international trade: The consequences of the escalation of trade tensions

  • If the threat made by the US to apply trade tariffs on 200 billion dollars’ worth of imports from China were to materialise, US consumers could be impacted
  • Moreover, if the US continues to increase trade barriers, Japan, South Korea and Thailand could be specifically targeted by the US administration after the European Union
  • In the eurozone, the plan to lower duties on auto imports from 10% to 2,5% would offer a lower cost compared to higher custom duties on exports to the US

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