Market perspectives

  • strategie-d-allocation-007
    Asset allocation strategy

    The persistence of a cautious stance

    The economic and political climate is glum, and things continue to worsen. Although we do not predict a recession in the foreseeable future, we nevertheless cannot identify any factor likely to reverse the cycle.

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  • strategie-d-allocation-002
    Asset allocation strategy

    It is time for caution

    We recall that we had already reduced the European equity exposure in our portfolios on 2 August because of the Fed’s return to a more neutral and less proactive stance, as well as mounting political risks linked to a hard Brexit and new elections in Italy.

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  • strategie-d-allocation-011
    Asset allocation strategy

    Central banks are committed to reassuring investors

    The Fed and the ECB have managed to firmly establish lower interest rates while pushing risk assets higher. Investors are sceptical amid high political and economic uncertainty but, at least for the time being, the central bank actions have helped distract markets from the mixed fundamental picture.

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  • strategie-d-allocation-006
    Asset allocation strategy

    Markets have moved lower but caution is still the watchword

    Any drop in risk assets like the recent retreat in May is always an invitation to review the situation with a view to reassuming risk. This is particularly tempting today as the rally earlier this year might have more mileage.

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  • strategie-d-allocation-005
    Asset allocation strategy

    Caution over the rally

    “I am prepared for the worst but hope for the best”, said Benjamin Disraeli, a distinguished British prime minister in the 19th century.

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  • strategie-d-allocation-010
    Asset allocation strategy

    Central banks are calling all the shots

    Equity and bond markets have staged an impressive rebound since January; what is equally impressive is that this has been accomplished with practically no shift in fundamentals and fund flows. The fourth-quarter sell-off was caused by central bank action and so was the rapid recovery seen in recent weeks.

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  • strategie_d_allocation_014
    Asset allocation strategy

    The market rebound could run out of steam

    The risk asset rebound continued in February with not much investor conviction, judging from the modest equity market inflows since the beginning of the year. This is hardly surprising because, apart from central banks reverting to a neutral stance on interest rate rises, fundamentals have not radically change since...

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  • strategie-d-allocation-008
    Asset allocation strategy

    Central banks have calmed markets down

    Central banks are continuing to dictate market momentum and never more spectacularly so than in January.

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  • houseview-cover
    Market outlook

    A very challenging 2019 ahead

    Fundamentals will be back in 2019

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  • strategie-d-allocation-009
    Asset allocation strategy

    Already time to take stock

    2018 is not yet over but it is already time to take stock. We have been most struck this year by the fact that market falls have been so widespread. In fact, we have to go all the way back to 1994 for such negative returns on both bonds and equities.

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