Weekly Economic Insights - 25 February 2019

Macro Highlights - 2/27/2019

Highlights of the week

Economist insights: Focus on world liquidity, modest increase in the composite PMI for the eurozone and rebound in industrial production in Switzerland

Focus on world liquidity

  • Most of the main central banks recently confirmed that they intend to continue to provide ample liquidity, as we were expecting
  • We still anticipate that world liquidity could contract slightly in the first half of 2019, before expanding again in the second half of the year
  • This outlook could contribute to containing risk premia on financial markets and maintaining long- term yields at a low level, according to our analysis

Eurozone

  • Following five successive declines, the eurozone composite PMI rose in February
  • It nevertheless remains at a low level, which confirms that activity continued to slow at the start of 2019…
  • … and backs our scenario according to which the ECB should remain very dovish

Switzerland

  • The rebound in industrial production in Q4 2018 is explained by the good performance of Swiss exports…
  • … despite the appreciation of the franc since May and the slowdown in the momentum of foreign demand, notably in Germany…
  • … which underpins our forecast of a rebound in fourth quarter GDP growth

Last-minute news:  Donald  Trump  delayed the increase in tariffs  on Chinese imports

  • While China and the United States had until March 1 to come to an agreement and avoid a tariff hike from 10% to 25% on 200 billion dollars in Chinese imports, Donald Trump delayed the deadline
  • If this new deadline has not been specified, continued talks are said to be the result of “substantial progress”, which should be hailed by investors
  • According to the statements by the US president, this “substantial progress” concerns intellectual property protection, technology transfers, agriculture, services and currencies

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