Weekly Economic Insights - 10 December 2018

Macro Highlights - 12/12/2018

Highlights of the week

Economist insights: Rebound of the ISM indices and a still-healthy labour market in the US, stabilisation of PMIs in China and uncertainty surrounding the renewal of stock market equivalence in Switzerland

United States

  • Greater optimism of purchasing managers in November: increase in new orders
  • Low number of jobs created in November, but a still-dynamic labour market...
  • ... with a stable wage growth and unemployment rate at 3.1% and 3.7%, respectively

China

  • Stabilisation of PMIs in expansion territory…
  • ...and strong growth in exports in October and November...
  • .... back our scenario of a slight acceleration in GDP growth in the fourth quarter

Switzerland

  • Decision by the Federal Council not to sign the draft institutional framework agreement with the EU...
  • ...before making its final position known in spring 2019 following a broad public debate
  • Uncertainty over the renewal of Swiss stock market equivalence granted by the EU

Focus eurozone: macroeconomic outlook

  • GDP growth could decelerate to 1.5% in 2019 and to 1.4% in 2020
  • Domestic demand would support economic growth
  • Exports would suffer from the appreciation of the euro

 

 

 

 

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