Weekly Economic Insight - 14 October 2019

Macro Highlights - 10/16/2019

Special Real Estate issue: outlook for residential Real Estate

Our biannual real estate markets study

  • We analyse the contribution of macroeconomic variables to the recent increase in residential property prices and use this information as a basis for determining how they should change in the near future.
    We use an econometric model based on recent academic research in the fields of property finance, housing economics, and multivariate statistical analysis techniques applied to time series.
    On the whole, our results point to a significant contribution from credit conditions, as well as consistent influence, but to a lesser extent, from economic growth and inflation. In addition, the vacancy rate has had a more pronounced influence in the last few years.
    The outlook suggested by our analysis indicates that residential property prices should remain relatively stable in Switzerland, but continue to grow steadily in Germany, but at a slower pace. In France, the rise in prices should slow. Lastly, in the United Kingdom, prices may increase, unless there is a no-deal Brexit.


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