Weekly Economic Insights - 22 July 2019

Macro Highlights - 7/24/2019

Highlights of the week

Economist insights: US consumers back in full force, but the Fed is concerned about trade tensions and a global economic slowdown

United States

  • Growth in retail sales was strong in June, continuing to follow the upward trend that started at the beginning of 2019
  • Furthermore, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book indicated that the outlook for economic activity in the US remains generally positive for the coming months
  • Despite the recent strong data, the Fed continued to be concerned about the negative impact of the trade tensions and slowdown in global growth on the economic outlook of the US

Focus Portugal: A limited slowdown in GDP growth in 2019 but an acceleration in potential growth remains a major challenge

  • The reforms implemented over the past years have enabled Portuguese GDP growth to exceed the average growth observed in the eurozone
  • This outperformance should continue in the coming quarters, according to our analysis: we forecast average GDP growth of 1.8% in 2019 and 2020 for Portugal
  • Furthermore, the ECB’s ultra-accommodative policy should continue to limit the sovereign risk, despite the country’s high level of public debt (123% of GDP in Q1 2019)
  • However, the acceleration of potential growth remains a major challenge for Portugal, while its infrastructure has become obsolete and the emigration of graduates remains high

 

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