Asset management.

Overweighting US equities has become a consensual choice that nobody can deny today. This position is however likely to change during the coming months.

The theme of resilience, i.e investing in companies able to withstand further disruptions to the global production chain and a firmer pursuit of sovereignty and security, now occupies a central place. 

In the bond markets, we are unwinding our overweight on emerging bonds pending the arrival of the Trump administration, and increasing our exposure to subordinated financial bonds and corporate hybrids.

In France Michel Barnier’s government fell, ushering in a fresh bout of uncertainty. The technical government option now seems to be the most likely scenario. However, peripheral eurozone countries are enjoying some momentum, which has offset the negative impact of French and German difficulties.

Economic indicators in the US are still buoyant but less so as the economy gradually returns to normal.

In China, the situation is improving but gradually, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI rising for the second month running.

Political tensions in France and also in Germany are inevitably weighing on PMIs.

Eurozone inflation has been slowing so the ECB can continue to reduce rates. 

Economic activity in the United States remains strong, while in Japan, inflation has resumed its upward trajectory.

The eurozone is still suffering from the conflict’s consequences and energy prices in particular are taking a toll as we enter winter.

The ECB is coming under increased pressure to ease its monetary policy and put a brake on the economic slowdown.

In Japan, the chances of the central bank tightening monetary policy are mixed.