By Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau, Co-Head of Equities, Edmond de Rothschild AM (France)
The world order, whether economic, geopolitical, technological, or societal, is changing at a dizzying pace. Paradoxically, the constants of human nature manifest themselves with unwavering regularity.
Territorial ambitions, unreasonable strategies in the service of grandiose projects, and blindness to the lure of profit are as old as the world itself, and their consequences are no less recurrent.
It is through the lens of these enduring patterns that we can read, in simple terms, recent actions by President Donald Trump, the risky investments resulting from a decade of zero interest rates and the craze for AI infrastructure, as well as the uniformly bullish stance of strategists on equity market prospects for 2026 across all asset classes.
The consequences are known, but uncertainty remains regarding the timeline for the effects of these actions to materialize.
On the geopolitical front, short-term victories are bound to fuel further mistrust of the United States, with the economic cost being borne by exporting companies that have benefited fully from American soft power over the past decades, compared to Chinese or other alternatives.
Economically speaking, excesses will result in value destruction, with market liquidity only serving to delay the inevitable. Even powers with all the economic levers at their disposal, such as China, have not been able to postpone excesses indefinitely, particularly in the real estate market. So why assume that lower interest rates can forever hide the fact that some unicorns should not even exist and that many data centers dedicated to generative AI will end up with returns on investment well below expectations, due to overcapacity and fierce competition?
Finally, regarding the equity market outlook for 2026, three years of booming markets (+27%, +20%, and +7% respectively in euros for 2023, 2024, and 20251) have gotten the better of cautious investors, who are now facing a colossal shortfall. They no longer have the credibility to express their doubts, which would immediately be dismissed as mere sour grapes for having been wrong. All bull market ends are marked by the capitulation of skeptics and, therefore, marginal buyers.
After reading these lines, the temptation to retreat to a cave, a fallout shelter, or cash investments is strong. However, that is not our message.
Staying away from the stock markets is impossible if you want to preserve and grow your wealth in real terms in a world where inflation is the result of global (re)fragmentation.
However, in some years, it is necessary to invest with the goal of not losing, rather than earning as much as possible, and to protect oneself from the risks associated with the three factors identified above.
DISCLAIMER
January 2026. This is a marketing communication.
This document is issued by the Edmond de Rothschild Group. It is not legally binding and is intended solely for information purposes. This document may not be communicated to persons located in jurisdictions in which it would be considered as a recommendation, an offer of products or services or a solicitation, and in which case its communication could be in breach of applicable laws and regulations. This document has not been reviewed or approved by a regulator of any jurisdiction. The figures, comments, opinions and/or analyses contained herein reflect the sentiment of the Edmond de Rothschild Group with respect to market trends based on its expertise, economic analyses and the information in its possession at the date on which this document was drawn up and may change at any time without notice. They may no longer be accurate or relevant at the time of reading, owing notably to the publication date of the document or to changes on the market. This document is intended solely to provide general and introductory information to the readers, and notably should not be used as a basis for any decision to buy, sell or hold an investment. Under no circumstances may the Edmond de Rothschild Group be held liable for any decision to invest, divest or hold an investment taken on the basis of these comments and analyses. The Edmond de Rothschild Group therefore recommends that investors obtain the various regulatory descriptions of each financial product before investing, to analyse the risks involved and form their own opinion independently of the Edmond de Rothschild Group. Investors are advised to seek independent advice from specialist advisors before concluding any transactions based on the information contained in this document, notably in order to ensure the suitability of the investment with their financial and tax situation.
Past performance and volatility are not a reliable indicator of future performance and volatility and may vary over time, and may be independently affected by exchange rate fluctuations.
Source of the information: unless otherwise stated, the sources used in the present document are those of the Edmond de Rothschild Group. This document and its content may not be reproduced or used in whole or in part without the permission of the Edmond de Rothschild Group.
Copyright © Edmond de Rothschild Group – All rights reserved
EDMOND DE ROTHSCHILD ASSET MANAGEMENT (FRANCE)
47, rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré 75401 Paris Cedex 08
Société anonyme governed by an executive board and a supervisory board with capital of 11.033.769 euros
AMF Registration number GP 04000015
332.652.536 R.C.S. Paris