Outlook
& news.

•    Oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly overvalued, which, combined with Houthi attacks and rising gas prices, pushed the global commodities index above its 2022 peak.
•    Faced with the sharp rise in government bond yields, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent massively increased Treasury buybacks to reassure markets, triggering a drop in the dollar and a surge in precious metals in return.
•    Equity markets racked up serious losses this week. The tech sector was particularly badly hit and this time with additional worries over increasingly powerful Chinese AI models, although future productivity gains remain promising. 

By Nicolas Bickel, Group Head of Investment Private Banking & CIO

The latest edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication by the Private Banking Investment team and our Group’s experts.

•    Tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as attacks in the Red Sea, are reigniting fears over energy supplies, pushing the price of a barrel of oil towards $100.
•    The US is calling for an additional $87 billion in military spending, whilst Donald Trump has announced further tariff increases.
•    In the eurozone, the slowdown in inflation allowed the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.

GO ! Formations, a leading provider of professional training and risk prevention services in France, is refinancing its senior debt with the support of CAPZA to strengthen its financial structure and accelerate both its organic and external growth strategy.

•    This week's inflation data in the US offered markets some unexpected relief.
•    US-Iran tensions are now in a low intensity conflict but the consequences could still prove damaging for commodities.
•    A risk premium on short US rates and the choppy geopolitical context have led to the Momentum Asset trade unwinding, particularly for semiconductors

By Nicolas Bickel, Group Head of Investment Private Banking & CIO

•    The Middle East conflict had gradually been receding into the background but the resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran caught investors off guard.
•    The latest economic data and comments from some Fed governors mean we still cannot rule out a rate hike at the end of July so real interest rates have moved towards new highs.
•    We have turned positive on government bonds as Central bank risk is now largely discounted.

•    The US-Iran agreement has unblocked oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude to fall to around $70 per barrel and fuelling the view that the energy crisis is now on the wane.
•    In the eurozone, prices rose 2.8% over a year, down from 3.2% and less than the 3% expected, whilst in the US, labour market momentum is slowing, with job creation falling short of expectations.
•    China’s PMIs delivered a more reassuring message with strong industrial activity underpinned by foreign demand.

Asset Allocation: “Peace Piece” or the archipelago of interdependencies
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM & Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Asset & Overlay

Fixed Income: Seeking Alpha in the bond markets for the second half of 2026
Alain Krief, Head of Fixed Income

European Equities: Game-changing investment supercycles
Caroline Gauthier, Co-Head of Equities 

International Equities: AI: Will semiconductors remain the centre of gravity?
Xiadong Bao, Portfolio Manager - International Equities 

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

Engagement – whether financial or ESG-related, individual or collective – concerns all investors, whether active or passive. It is one of the three pillars of stewardship policies, alongside dialogue and voting policy. On 8 June, ten investors, including Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, published a report entitled “The VOICE Method for measuring the effectiveness and influence of engagement” under the leadership of the Forum for Responsible Investment (FIR) and with the support of academics and the PRI.