Outlook
& news.

• In Europe, the ECB raised interest rates by 25 basis points and is maintaining a hawkish stance, while growth forecasts have been revised upward, except for France.

• In the United States, rising energy prices are fueling inflationary pressures, while strong employment and economic activity have driven interest rates higher.

• Geopolitical tensions remain high, amid escalation in the Middle East and the rise of far-right parties in Europe, supporting oil prices and fueling short-term volatility.

By Nicolas Bickel, Group Head of Investment Private Banking & CIO

Forty years after first establishing a presence in the Principality of Monaco, Edmond de Rothschild is moving into a new address in La Condamine

•    Kevin Warsh’s “hawkish” stance in the face of persistent inflation and US economic resilience led to a rise in interest rates, weighing on risky assets.
•    In the eurozone, August inflation rose to 3.3% as expected, largely due to energy prices, while the Chinese economy continues to suffer from sluggish domestic demand.
•    In Japan, economic indicators are surprising on the upside and comments from the Bank of Japan remain restrictive, paving the way for a likely rate hike in September.

•    The lull in tensions over Iranian oil driven by Strait of Hormuz negotiations is overshadowed by the resumption of the trade war waged by Washington against Canada and China.
•    Economic activity in the US and the Eurozone shows resilience, though tempered by stagnant US consumer spending and a contraction in French services. 
•    Pressure on the OAT-Bund spread continue to build, fuelled by the budgetary deadlock in France and investor concerns over the economic proposals of the leading presidential candidates.

—    Alain Krief is promoted to Global CIO for Edmond de Rothschild AM, and joins the Asset manager’s Executive committee. 
—    Charles Lilford joins Edmond de Rothschild AM as Co-Head of Equities, and Senior Portfolio Manager for the Big Data strategy. 

•    Oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz are reportedly overvalued, which, combined with Houthi attacks and rising gas prices, pushed the global commodities index above its 2022 peak.
•    Faced with the sharp rise in government bond yields, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent massively increased Treasury buybacks to reassure markets, triggering a drop in the dollar and a surge in precious metals in return.
•    Equity markets racked up serious losses this week. The tech sector was particularly badly hit and this time with additional worries over increasingly powerful Chinese AI models, although future productivity gains remain promising. 

By Nicolas Bickel, Group Head of Investment Private Banking & CIO

The latest edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication by the Private Banking Investment team and our Group’s experts.

•    Tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as attacks in the Red Sea, are reigniting fears over energy supplies, pushing the price of a barrel of oil towards $100.
•    The US is calling for an additional $87 billion in military spending, whilst Donald Trump has announced further tariff increases.
•    In the eurozone, the slowdown in inflation allowed the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.

GO ! Formations, a leading provider of professional training and risk prevention services in France, is refinancing its senior debt with the support of CAPZA to strengthen its financial structure and accelerate both its organic and external growth strategy.

•    This week's inflation data in the US offered markets some unexpected relief.
•    US-Iran tensions are now in a low intensity conflict but the consequences could still prove damaging for commodities.
•    A risk premium on short US rates and the choppy geopolitical context have led to the Momentum Asset trade unwinding, particularly for semiconductors