Outlook
& news.

•    Energy prices fell and markets rose after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding.
•    In the US, new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but had to withdraw mention of a “dovish bias” in the communique and China's economy is split between upbeat exports and a soft domestic picture.
•    we have gone back to neutral on US Treasuries and European government debt after this rate-easing movement (with long rates under vigilance). We are still keen on equities, a position we adopted after the sell-off at the beginning of the month.

3 months and 17 days. That is how long it took for the United States and Iran to finally reach a preliminary agreement and put an end to the conflict that had pitted them against each other since February. The details of the agreement are not known, but in the eyes of investors, the only thing that matters is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to take effect starting Friday, the day the agreement is officially signed in Geneva.

•    Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
•    Despite low energy stocks, Brent crude prices fell below $90 a barrel, whilst the cyclical and technology sectors rebounded.
•    The ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023. Meanwhile, in the United States, no monetary policy move is expected next week during the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.

—    The three new funds are Core US, Core EMU and Defensive Global Equities strategies
—    They are the first products in a range named Quartz, which will initially comprise seven funds by the end of 2026
—    The quantitative management team is being strengthened by the arrival of Yu Sun and Juan Sebastian Caicedo, both quantitative analysts and portfolio managers.

•    Last week’s hopes that a ceasefire would soon be signed were dashed by developments. 
•    Despite the uncertainty, the market is convinced that discussions will be successful, a situation reflected in Donald Trump’s statement that we are in “the middle of final negotiations” to end the Iran war. 
•    In the eurozone, inflation rose to 3.2% in May (up from 3.0% in April) and producer prices rebounded to 4.9%, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates on 11 June.

We are delighted to have been ranked fourth this year in this leading French index, which recognises consistency and quality in active management within the equity market.

•    Diplomatic progress between the US and Iran has eased geopolitical concerns, pushing oil prices back below $100 a barrel and propelling the S&P 500 to a record high.
•    US GDP figures for the first quarter of 2026 have been revised downwards to +1.6% on an annualised basis (compared with +2% in the initial estimate).
•    US investment-grade bond issuance is expected to reach $2.5 trillion in 2026, with a significant portion coming from hyperscalers.

After three years of development, hundreds of thousands of hours of design work and the involvement of around a hundred naval architects, engineers, composite specialists, data scientists, and technicians involved.

•    In the absence of adecisive diplomatic progress, markets are swinging between worry and renewed optimism. The high volatility in interest rates reflects uncertainty over the trajectory of prices and central bank policy.
•    Despite contracting PMI, the prospect of less aggressive tightening by the ECB is supporting European equities, with defensive stocks, utilities, telecoms and IT outperforming.
•    Activity in the US remains solid, driven by the manufacturing sector. However, several sectors (industry, energy, consumer goods) are underperforming and the technology sector has seen profit-taking.

We are honored to be featured among the top of Europe's Best Employers 2026, published by the Financial Times and Statista, for the second consecutive year.

The latest edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication by the Private Banking Investment team and our Group's experts. 

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management has won two awards at the 2026 Grand Prix des Sicav, organised by Mieux Vivre votre Argent magazine.