Outlook
& news.

The US administration is pushing the idea that the protectionist phase will end around the July 4th celebrations and that it will then focus on a programme of tax cuts and deregulation, which investors seem to believe in. The draft budget being drawn up in Congress does indeed raise hopes of a net fiscal stimulus of around 1% of GDP.

•    Moody's withdrew the US's AAA rating due to rising debt, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields.  
•    A budget compromise proposed by the Trump administration was narrowly passed in the House of Representatives, including tax cuts as well as reductions in healthcare spending and green subsidies, but it still needs Senate approval, promising lengthy discussions.
•    In Europe, the trade threat could substantially hamper growth, while in Asia, China and Japan are already facing economic challenges, prompting authorities to implement monetary easing measures.

The EdR SICAV Global Resilience fund focuses on four key contemporary challenges: defense & cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, protection, and strategic resources. 

•    The postponement of tariffs between the USA and China has brought relief to the markets, thereby reducing the likelihood of recession and inflation.
•    April's economic releases from the US have not yet shown any impact related to tariffs, with CPI inflation holding steady at 2.3%. However, the PPI figures reveal a slight acceleration in the prices of imported goods.
•    Government bond yields rose at the beginning of the week after the US-China truce, but the rise was held back by the US-Iran talks and US economic releases.

•    A meeting scheduled for this weekend between US and Chinese delegations suggests that both countries are ready to negotiate. 
•    Divergences are appearing among central banks: the Bank of England has cautiously cut rates, while the Fed has chosen to maintain rates, navigating between signs of slowing growth and inflationary pressures.
•    In Germany, Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor after two votes in Parliament, an unprecedented event, but his determination reassured investors of future political stability.

So far this year, market performances have been essentially driven by political factors. Although the S&P500 index is now returning to its pre-Liberation Day levels, all indicators suggest that CEO and consumer confidence has dived since Trump’s announcements. The market rebound seems fuelled by a notion conveyed by the Trump administration that from July 4th, the government would turn the page on protectionism and switch to its tax cut and deregulation programmes

The world is changing rapidly - and not always for the better. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly tense, with extended conflicts, fragmentation of alliances, climate change, the resurgence of protectionism and the rise of populism. These dynamics are causing deep and lasting disruptions that challenge supply chains, economic stability, and population security.

•    The US administration is ready to talk to China about lowering tariffs to 50-65%, in exchange for concessions.
•    Uncertainty and trade tensions have weighed on macroeconomic data, with a slight deterioration in US and European PMI indices, and US companies now considering passing on higher costs in sales prices.
•    In the US, several members of the Federal Reserve are supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts, because of inflationary risks linked to the trade war. In Europe, the ECB's chief economist is not ruling out a rate cut in the near future.

At the LSEG Lipper Fund Awards 2025 , the Edmond de Rothschild Fund Emerging Credit, a bond fund dedicated to emerging corporate debt, was recognized for its consistent and regular performance over 10 years  in the "Bond Emerging Markets Global Corporates" category, both on European scale and within four countries: Switzerland, Germany, Austria, and France. In addition, the two fund managers of Edmond de Rothschild Fund Emerging Credit, Stéphane Mayor and Lisa Turk , received an AAA rating in the "Global Corporate Emerging Markets Bonds" category by Citywire .

• Despite contradictory announcements from the Trump administration, markets reacted positively to the temporary tariff exemptions on Chinese technology imports and progress in trade talks with Japan.
• The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to avoid inflation expectations becoming unhinged, as the economic outlook worsens, despite solid US retail sales due to pre-tariff advance purchases. 
• The ECB is benefiting from the euro's appreciation, which gives it room for manoeuvre to ease monetary policy without worrying about the Fed's immobility.

•    China, being the only country not benefiting from the 90-day truce, faces extremely high tariffs, thereby intensifying trade tensions.
•    Uncertainties surrounding inflation and growth continue to rise, especially in the United States, heightening fears of a recession.
•    European retail sales were up in Q1 2025, confirming that business in Europe is holding up well.

We don't know when the Trump & Co. whirlwind will end. No one knows, and neither does he. Perhaps with the next US midterm elections in November 2026. In the meantime, the set of decisions taken has the immense merit of waking up Europe, and first and foremost, the European Union. Without waiting for Donald Trump to return to the White House, the old continent has been offered the roadmap for its economic revival set out in the Draghi report published in September 2024.