Perspectieven en actualiteiten.

•    US equity markets are once again banking on a scenario of sufficient growth and contained inflation, favouring technology and semiconductors, while defensive sectors are being shunned.
•    The record fall in crude oil stocks and the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz show that the US is using up its safety margin without addressing the structural risk of a lasting energy shock.
•    In the eurozone, core inflation is falling but consumer confidence has dropped to its lowest level since the Covid crisis

Edmond de Rothschild Corporate Finance conseille Altur Investissement et les dirigeants-actionnaires du groupe POMPES FUNÈBRES DE FRANCE dans le cadre de sa cession au groupe OGF

Following our previous editorials, “Cheaper, baby, cheaper” and “Jobs, baby, jobs,” the latest developments in the war in Iran have brought the urgent need for energy security in Europe and elsewhere to the forefront. In China, the initial announcements last March regarding the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) continue to emphasize renewable energy, electrification, and energy storage, but also look ahead to e-fuels and hydrogen. These Chinese programs have industrial, environmental, and security/sovereignty ambitions.

•    The rebound in risk assets following tensions in the Middle East is more a case of technical repositioning, rather than an improvement in fundamentals. It illustrates a market reflex that has become almost Pavlovian: automatically rush to buy on weakness. 
•    Behind the façade of market rebounds, the energy shock is still acute and now spreading to the most dependent economies, particularly in Europe and Asia. This disconnect between buoyant financial markets and the real economy is the main weakness today.
•    Maintaining exposure to risk assets should not be a case of excessive optimism but simply recognition that the cycle is still in place. However, we need to be more vigilant and more selective, notably with more exposure to the US and China.

The market movement observed in recent weeks fits into a rather classic mechanism, similar to a pendulum swinging from excess fear to relief. However, this time, the breadth of the movement reflects more than a simple technical adjustment. After a phase of brutal escalation in the Middle East, the intensity and speed of the rebound posted by risk assets was particularly surprising. Indeed, this upward move ranks within the 100th percentile of 10-day rallies recorded by the S&P since 1950, lifted by growth stocks – and notably tech-related sectors (hardware, semi-conductors and memories). As if investors, already hardened by the series of shocks in recent years – pandemic, Ukraine, trade tensions – had already factored in the idea that whatever the geopolitical crisis, it is followed by rapid normalisation.

Yet behind this rebound, the change in fundamentals has been more subtle, if not concerning. Far from having abated, the energy crisis has continued to spread across the most exposed economies, notably in Asia and Europe. 

•    In the US, this week’s data tended to reinforce the idea of knock-on inflation, both from Donald Trump’s tariffs and from services, even though the US Treasury said that tariffs deemed illegal in court would be replaced in July.
•    France’s GDP growth in the first quarter came in at a resilient 0.3% while Germany revised down its growth forecasts for 2026 to 0.5% from 1% and for 2027 to 0.9% vs. 1.7%.
•    China’s first quarter GDP rose 5%, or more than the 4.8% expected, thanks to industrial production growing 5.7%.

At the LSEG Lipper Fund Awards, announced on 16 April 2026 , Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management was named “Best Asset Management Company of the Year in France over 3 Years” in the “Overall Large Company” category. This award recognises the quality of our equity, fixed income and multi-asset ranges marketed in France. 
Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management was also awarded the prize for “Best Multi-Assets Range over 3 Years” in France, confirming the excellence of its expertise in asset allocation.

The first quarter of 2026 was marked by intense geopolitical instability, culminating in the conflict in Iran in early March. Despite this highly volatile environment, our European equity strategy “Mission Europa” successfully navigated market turbulence while maintaining its core objectives. With a fragile ceasefire signed on April 8, we discuss the portfolio’s strategy with Anthony Penel, European equities portfolio manager.

A massive market rally despite uncertainties surrounding the conflict

We are pleased to share that Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau  and Victoire Dubrujeaud have been included in the latest Citywire Selector ranking of PMs under 40 managing more than €1bn.

•    De-escalation in the Middle East led to a fall in government bond yields and a rebound in risk assets. Monetary policy expectations were also revised lower.
•    The IEA’s chairman said oil supply constraints could worsen markedly in April. 12 million barrels a day will be lost once tankers already at sea when hostilities broke out have delivered their cargoes.
•    March business surveys show that the eurozone was more affected by the conflict than the US. In the eurozone, PMIs look more fragile in countries like Italy which are heavily exposed to exports to the Gulf and surveys are now in contraction territory.

Within the space of a few hours, the US strategy towards Iran has undergone a dramatic U-turn. Under the threat of a US ultimatum, Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait, whilst imposing conditions on this reopening. The Iranian authorities stated that it would be possible to pass through the strait in coordination with the armed forces and in compliance with ‘technical constraints’. On the US side, strikes have been suspended for two weeks to allow for peace talks to begin, whilst Israel has emphasised that the conflict in southern Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement.