Perspectivas
y actualidad.

All that for nothing. Barely a month after his appointment and just hours after the announcement of his government's composition, Sébastien Lecornu has already resigned, becoming the only Prime Minister of the Fifth Republic whose government never saw the light of day. The extremely virulent reactions to the announcement of the government team last night, both from the opposition and within the Common Base itself, left Sébastien Lecornu with little choice, and attention is now focused on Emmanuel Macron. The latter surprised many by appointing one of his close advisers to replace François Bayrou, when many were expecting a sign of openness towards other parties, and it appears that his options are now very limited. 

•    The US shutdown may deprive the Fed of the necessary visibility on the job market ahead of its next monetary policy meeting, but further rate cuts are nevertheless expected.
•    In Europe, ECB chair Christine Lagarde thinks current benchmark rates are adequate. Her views were backed up by a slight increase in eurozone inflation.
•    Gold hit a new all-time record above $3,800/oz while oil prices retreated on expectations the October 5 OPEC+ meeting will decide to increase production. 

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (“REIM”) improved the results of its funds’ scores in the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark (“GRESB”) further, and several of its strategies are within the top of the industry groups.

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management is adding a new investment expertise to its existing capability with the recruitment of an active management quant team. Headed by industry veteran Bruno Taillardat, it includes senior quant portfolio managers, Xavier Marconnet and Frédéric Girod, who will be joined by 2 quantitative portfolio managers and a quant research analyst.

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

•    Donald Trump's recent decisions have rekindled uncertainty, particularly with the increase in H-1B work visa fees to $100,000 and the announcement of a new set of tariffs.
•    Despite the economic slowdown and tame inflation, central banks in China and Switzerland chose to leave rates unchanged. 
•    Market expectations of Fed rate cuts have faded, and US and European government bonds have risen significantly.

• The Fed resumed cutting rates with a 25bp reduction. However, investors focused on the FOMC’s projections.
• This situation is good news for risk appetite and equity indices made further gains.
• Elsewhere, China released disappointing data on retails sales, industrial production and investment but the country's equity markets brushed them off.

With a 0.25% cut in its key interest rates, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has given financial markets what they have been waiting for the past few months.

On Friday, September 12, Fitch downgraded France's sovereign rating from AA- to A+. The agency justified this decision on the grounds of a persistent deficit, public debt already at 114% of GDP and likely to reach 132% in 2034, and chronic political instability. At this level, France is approaching Italy's ratios, which are expected to reach 135%, while diverging from economies such as Spain and Belgium, whose trajectories appear more stable. This downgrade does not place France in a situation of immediate crisis, but it confirms the perception of relative weakness.

•    Disappointing job creations in the US convinced markets that the Fed had to revive the rate-cutting cycle.
•    The ECB, meanwhile, left its rates unchanged. The bank thinks risks to economic growth are now more finely balanced and is more confident on the eurozone's economic outlook.
•    Markets generally shrugged off a number of political and geopolitical tensions.

This formula, attributed to President Carter’s former advisor, Zbigniew Brzeziński, has long seemed irrelevant in a Europe that would like to see itself as “posthistoric”, peaceful, and economically integrated. But reality came crashing down over the last few months, with war returning to the Union’s doorstep, and the need for a strategic awakening. Europe is rediscovering a forgotten truth: if it is unable to defend itself, it shall have neither political sovereignty nor economic independence. Defence is the foundation that determines all the other fundamentals.

The political divide within the National Assembly left little doubt about the fate of the Bayrou government, and even though the latter wanted to believe in it until the end, the vote of confidence ultimately resulted in failure, hastening his resignation and the fall of his government. France thus finds itself in the same situation as last year after Mr. Barnier's departure and is expected to experience its 5th Prime Minister in three years, signaling the significant political instability characterizing the country since the beginning of E. Macron's second term. Faced with an unprecedented tripartition of the political landscape under the Fifth Republic, the president now has three options before him, which we present here in order of most to least likely according to us: