Outlook
& news.

•    The US-Iran agreement has unblocked oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude to fall to around $70 per barrel and fuelling the view that the energy crisis is now on the wane.
•    In the eurozone, prices rose 2.8% over a year, down from 3.2% and less than the 3% expected, whilst in the US, labour market momentum is slowing, with job creation falling short of expectations.
•    China’s PMIs delivered a more reassuring message with strong industrial activity underpinned by foreign demand.

Asset Allocation: “Peace Piece” or the archipelago of interdependencies
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM & Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Asset & Overlay

Fixed Income: Seeking Alpha in the bond markets for the second half of 2026
Alain Krief, Head of Fixed Income

European Equities: Game-changing investment supercycles
Caroline Gauthier, Co-Head of Equities 

International Equities: AI: Will semiconductors remain the centre of gravity?
Xiadong Bao, Portfolio Manager - International Equities 

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

Engagement – whether financial or ESG-related, individual or collective – concerns all investors, whether active or passive. It is one of the three pillars of stewardship policies, alongside dialogue and voting policy. On 8 June, ten investors, including Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, published a report entitled “The VOICE Method for measuring the effectiveness and influence of engagement” under the leadership of the Forum for Responsible Investment (FIR) and with the support of academics and the PRI.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM) has acquired a commercial building in England, United Kingdom, on behalf of a diversified pan-European strategy, for £6.4 million.

•    Despite persistent points of contention between Iran and the United States, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil have brought crude oil prices back to their pre-war levels.
•    The US economy continues to show strong momentum, whilst the eurozone is seeing a slight rebound in economic indicators, which nevertheless remain consistent with a weak economic climate.
•    The fall in oil prices has contributed to a decline in US interest rates, though this has not boosted equities, which have been weighed down by a sell-off in technology stocks.

Edmond de Rothschild’s real estate investment management business has achieved solid progress in the attainment of its sustainability strategy. 

•    Energy prices fell and markets rose after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding.
•    In the US, new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but had to withdraw mention of a “dovish bias” in the communique and China's economy is split between upbeat exports and a soft domestic picture.
•    we have gone back to neutral on US Treasuries and European government debt after this rate-easing movement (with long rates under vigilance). We are still keen on equities, a position we adopted after the sell-off at the beginning of the month.

3 months and 17 days. That is how long it took for the United States and Iran to finally reach a preliminary agreement and put an end to the conflict that had pitted them against each other since February. The details of the agreement are not known, but in the eyes of investors, the only thing that matters is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to take effect starting Friday, the day the agreement is officially signed in Geneva.

•    Washington and Tehran have outlined a 14-point preliminary agreement, notably providing for a permanent ceasefire across all fronts and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
•    Despite low energy stocks, Brent crude prices fell below $90 a barrel, whilst the cyclical and technology sectors rebounded.
•    The ECB delivered its first rate hike since 2023. Meanwhile, in the United States, no monetary policy move is expected next week during the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh.

—    The three new funds are Core US, Core EMU and Defensive Global Equities strategies
—    They are the first products in a range named Quartz, which will initially comprise seven funds by the end of 2026
—    The quantitative management team is being strengthened by the arrival of Yu Sun and Juan Sebastian Caicedo, both quantitative analysts and portfolio managers.

•    Last week’s hopes that a ceasefire would soon be signed were dashed by developments. 
•    Despite the uncertainty, the market is convinced that discussions will be successful, a situation reflected in Donald Trump’s statement that we are in “the middle of final negotiations” to end the Iran war. 
•    In the eurozone, inflation rose to 3.2% in May (up from 3.0% in April) and producer prices rebounded to 4.9%, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will raise interest rates on 11 June.