By Nicolas Bickel, Group Head of Investment Private Banking & CIO
The summer lull, which is generally characterised by relatively low trading volumes, unfolded in two phases this year. First, there was a correction in the “excesses” seen in the technology segment, particularly semiconductors, followed by a broad rebound after an exceptional earnings season that eased concerns over the scale of investment and its monetisation.
This rebound is taking place against a persistently uncertain geopolitical backdrop. The situation between Iran and the United States, particularly regarding the issue of the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, still appears intractable. Yet it has been entirely overlooked by equity markets, even as it affects money and bond markets. The 60-day ceasefire provided for under the memorandum of understanding signed by the two parties in June expired last Monday. This deadline could increase uncertainty surrounding the evolution of the conflict and weigh on equity markets. Despite geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 has posted 28 record highs so far in 2026. The first week of August was notably the S&P 500’s best-performing week since last April, with a gain of 3.58%.
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