Outlook
& news.

•    H1 2025: major political issues, but no significant impact on market performance, apart from occasional volatility.
•    Points to watch for investors in the second half of the year: geopolitical risk, trade tensions and the US public deficit. 
•    Allocation point: slight underweighting of equities - particularly US equities - and of the dollar. On the bond side, avoid long-dated bonds, as the risk of recession remains moderate.
•    Positive views on Europe: the implementation of the Draghi plan could enable the continent to catch up, by boosting competitiveness and supporting industry and technology.

Asset allocation : Undaunted markets in a changing world
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM
 
The credit market, a new safe haven for investors! 
Alain Krief, Head of Fixed Income
 
European equities, a powerful new narrative
Caroline Gauthier, Co-Head of Equities 
 
International equities: The world's largest casino 
Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau, Co-Head of Equities

Management philosophy: Mission sovereignty : resilience in action
Aymeric Gastaldi, International Equities Manager & Anthony Penel, European Equities Manager

The Pan-European office market is transforming, driven by evolving work models, a flight to quality and sustainable ambitions. Stabilizing values present opportunities for investors to achieve above average returns on both the short- and longer-term strategies, especially for mid-size offices on high quality locations in the city centres.

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

•    The US Secretary of commerce said around 10 trade deals had been signed, and progress is being made in discussions with China.
•    In Europe, the NATO countries, except Spain, agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP.
•    Japan's PMI composite is expanding, contrasting with Europe’s PMI, particularly in France, where the political situation is fragile following the failed pensions working party.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM) a nommé Klaus Schmitz au poste de Chief Investment Officer Europe et Executive Chairman de Edmond de Rothschild REIM UK, à compter du 1er septembre 2025.

•    Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and recent statements from Donald Trump, investors remain broadly confident as long as the conflict does not spread and the Strait of Hormuz remains operational.
•    The One Big Beautiful Bill Act continues to face hurdles in Congress. Meanwhile, May’s economic indicators disappointed, with a decline in industrial production and weaker retail sales.
•    Neither the Fed, the Bank of England, nor the Bank of Japan altered their monetary policy. All three adopted a cautious tone, suggesting that any potential rate cuts will depend on the evolution of trade and geopolitical tensions.

Please find below the May edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication from the Private Banking Investments team and experts from our Group which presents our convictions for the equity and bond markets for the second quarter of 2025.

Reduced visibility on the global economic outlook in the current environment has tended to widen performance gaps between regions, companies and asset classes. This complexity is creating interesting pockets of differentiation, notably within bond segments - including emerging corporate debt.

The project is expected to have 60 units with views over Plaza de las Glòries and the 22@ skyline.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM), through one of its pan-European strategies, and UNIQ Residential have reinforced their successful relationship with a new residential development in Barcelona, specifically in the area of Plaza de las Glòrìes, in the neighbourhood of Poblenou.

This marks the latest collaboration between the two companies, following their previous development, Casa Maury Pares on Calle Mallorca, which included 22 residential properties and a 104-bed senior living development, in central Barcelona.

•    Israel conducted an attack targeting nuclear sites in Iran, leading to tensions and threats of retaliation; however, the impact on financial markets has remained limited.
•    Inflation figures in the United States are below expectations, aided by inventories that cushion the impact of import taxes.
•    Markets are responding to geopolitical risk by adopting a cautious stance on American equities and maintaining neutrality on corporate credit.

We are delighted to be recognized among the best employers in Europe according to a new ranking from the Financial Times and Statista.