Outlook
& news.

•    Tensions between the United States and Iran, as well as attacks in the Red Sea, are reigniting fears over energy supplies, pushing the price of a barrel of oil towards $100.
•    The US is calling for an additional $87 billion in military spending, whilst Donald Trump has announced further tariff increases.
•    In the eurozone, the slowdown in inflation allowed the ECB to keep interest rates unchanged at its July meeting.

•    This week's inflation data in the US offered markets some unexpected relief.
•    US-Iran tensions are now in a low intensity conflict but the consequences could still prove damaging for commodities.
•    A risk premium on short US rates and the choppy geopolitical context have led to the Momentum Asset trade unwinding, particularly for semiconductors

•    The Middle East conflict had gradually been receding into the background but the resumption of hostilities between Washington and Tehran caught investors off guard.
•    The latest economic data and comments from some Fed governors mean we still cannot rule out a rate hike at the end of July so real interest rates have moved towards new highs.
•    We have turned positive on government bonds as Central bank risk is now largely discounted.

•    The US-Iran agreement has unblocked oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing Brent crude to fall to around $70 per barrel and fuelling the view that the energy crisis is now on the wane.
•    In the eurozone, prices rose 2.8% over a year, down from 3.2% and less than the 3% expected, whilst in the US, labour market momentum is slowing, with job creation falling short of expectations.
•    China’s PMIs delivered a more reassuring message with strong industrial activity underpinned by foreign demand.

Asset Allocation: “Peace Piece” or the archipelago of interdependencies
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM & Michaël Nizard, Head of Multi-Asset & Overlay

Fixed Income: Seeking Alpha in the bond markets for the second half of 2026
Alain Krief, Head of Fixed Income

European Equities: Game-changing investment supercycles
Caroline Gauthier, Co-Head of Equities 

International Equities: AI: Will semiconductors remain the centre of gravity?
Xiadong Bao, Portfolio Manager - International Equities 

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

Engagement – whether financial or ESG-related, individual or collective – concerns all investors, whether active or passive. It is one of the three pillars of stewardship policies, alongside dialogue and voting policy. On 8 June, ten investors, including Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, published a report entitled “The VOICE Method for measuring the effectiveness and influence of engagement” under the leadership of the Forum for Responsible Investment (FIR) and with the support of academics and the PRI.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM) has acquired a commercial building in England, United Kingdom, on behalf of a diversified pan-European strategy, for £6.4 million.

•    Despite persistent points of contention between Iran and the United States, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil have brought crude oil prices back to their pre-war levels.
•    The US economy continues to show strong momentum, whilst the eurozone is seeing a slight rebound in economic indicators, which nevertheless remain consistent with a weak economic climate.
•    The fall in oil prices has contributed to a decline in US interest rates, though this has not boosted equities, which have been weighed down by a sell-off in technology stocks.

After years of consolidation, the primary market for euro-denominated corporate hybrid bonds is experiencing a real resurgence. Issuance volumes are soaring, defying forecasts.

Edmond de Rothschild’s real estate investment management business has achieved solid progress in the attainment of its sustainability strategy. 

•    Energy prices fell and markets rose after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding.
•    In the US, new Fed chairman Kevin Warsh left rates unchanged but had to withdraw mention of a “dovish bias” in the communique and China's economy is split between upbeat exports and a soft domestic picture.
•    we have gone back to neutral on US Treasuries and European government debt after this rate-easing movement (with long rates under vigilance). We are still keen on equities, a position we adopted after the sell-off at the beginning of the month.