Perspectivas
y actualidad.

The development of cities has historically been the cradle of major changes, be it technological progress or social, political, economic and cultural progress. And this will be increasingly the case in the future. The city of the future is already taking form. It is greener, more flexible and accessible, automated, focused on technology and innovation, better monitored, and home to the head offices of large companies and a broad array of services. Despite inequality issues, the continued growth of cities could provide numerous attractive investment opportunities. 

•    Despite the current political uncertainty, French government debt is still easily finding buyers, with the France’s treasury department successfully raising € 11bn. 
•    Fiscal risk weighed on the UK’s long bonds, with 30-year gilt yields reaching highs not seen since 1998.
•    US Treasury yields were under pressure this week, as the 30-year bond revisited 5% before poor economic data caused it to fall back.

At the Rimini Meeting, Mario Draghi made a harsh assessment: Europe believed that its economic power was enough to secure its geopolitical role. Recent events (war in Ukraine, tensions with the United States, rivalry with China) have dispelled this illusion. The European Union, a spectator to major upheavals, must transform itself if it wants to defend its fundamental values: democracy, freedom, sovereignty, and prosperity.

On either side of the Atlantic, these past few weeks have been bustling with news. Although we chose not to adjust our allocations in response to these headlines, we did strengthen several of our convictions and have identified new factors calling for vigilance.

The latest issue of ‘Outlook & Convictions’, a publication led by the Global Investment Research Team from Private Banking, in collaboration with our Group’s experts, is now available. 

Jerome Powell confirmed that the Fed would proceed with a rate cut in September while paying more attention to jobs data than inflation when deciding on monetary policy changes over the short term.

The eurozone was penalized by the return of political risk in France, where Prime minister François Bayrou's vote of confidence could bring down the government on September 8.

Japan and emerging countries saw a fall in asset prices, due to profit taking and news on the US import duties.

Edmond de Rothschild has appointed David Claus as CEO of Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management Luxembourg* and Group Head of the Asset Servicing business line.

•    The Trump-Putin meeting did not result in a ceasefire, but it did initiate key discussions on Ukraine, followed by a meeting in Washington on security guarantees.
•    With job creation slowing and inflation picking up in the US, uncertainty surrounds US monetary policy, and J. Powell's statements in Jackson Hole are eagerly awaited.
•    The European economy is proving resilient with a rising PMI index, despite higher-than-expected UK inflation.

Short duration corporate bonds are, by definition, bonds issued by private companies with a residual maturity under 3 years. As their maturity date is relatively close, they naturally offer excellent visibility on their potential performance. 

•    Donald Trump and the candidates to succeed Jerome Powell are arguing for an urgent rate cut by the Fed in response to the slowdown in activity and inflation.
•    Powell's camp is urging the Fed to keep its current rates, as tariffs are expected to push inflation above 3% by the end of the year. 
•    In France, prime minister François Bayrou unveiled his proposed budget cuts. He hopes to reduce the government deficit to €43.5bn in 2026, but political consensus remains uncertain.

"Veritas" - Science and research, present and future allies of sustainable development

"Fortis est Veritas. “Strong is truth” is Oxford's motto, which you will read on many a pediment as you stroll through this magical place of knowledge and learning. 

“Veritas” is the motto of Harvard University.

•    Washington sent letters to several countries announcing between 20-50% in tariffs and additional levies on products and goods that are re-exported to third countries as a way of sidestepping the increases.
•    France set an ambitious target of 4.6% for the government deficit in 2026. Meanwhile, the UK is struggling with a weak economy but that will allow the Bank of England to cut rates.
•    In China, consumer prices rose slightly but production prices continued to suffer from deflation.