Perspectivas
y actualidad.

•    Tehran is maintaining a firm stance and seeking to rapidly increase the economic and geopolitical costs for its adversaries, targeting energy infrastructure and maritime routes as a priority.
•    If the crisis persists, a sustained rise in energy prices could simultaneously weigh on household purchasing power, business costs, and margins.
•    For now, the stock market reaction remains limited, but the rise in implied volatility (particularly for oil), the upturn in inflation expectations, and the persistence of a high geopolitical risk premium reflect growing concern.

As we feared in our note published on Friday, Donald Trump acknowledged the inability to reach an agreement on his own terms on the nuclear issue and decided to launch a large-scale military operation against Iran. The elimination in the early hours of the conflict of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with 48 other political and military leaders, confirmed that the objective of the United States and Israel was indeed regime change and not just the destruction of Tehran's nuclear and ballistic capabilities. While the world has seen many phases of tension between the two sides since 1979, this is an unprecedented escalation whose consequences will be profound and lasting for the entire region and undoubtedly for the global geopolitical balance, as it appears that this intervention is also a message sent to China, of which Iran was a partner, as Venezuela was before it.

•    Germany’s final fourth-quarter GDP reading showed a 0.3% rise QoQ, a sign that private consumption was strong, government spending on the rise and investment recovering.

•    Several Fed members moved to a more restrictive position by reiterating the need to have more solid proof of disinflation before cutting rates again.

•    US-Iran talks continued in Geneva but with no progress; Tehran rejected the US demands.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management has completed the acquisition of a seed portfolio of residential assets in Berlin, marking the first investment under its new German Residential Alpha strategy. The transaction reinforces EdR REIM’s conviction around investing in supply constrained residential markets across Europe.

•    Geopolitical tensions remain high with the failure of Ukraine-Russia negotiations, the prolongation of US-Iran talks, the continued deployment of the US armada in the region, and the risk of a partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

•    In the US, the FOMC minutes reveal differences of opinion among governors regarding inflation, which remains above target but is slowing, and resilient growth, which argues for patience before further rate cuts.

•    In the UK, unemployment rose to a 5-year high of 5.2% so markets are now expecting two rate cuts before June.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management, on behalf of its Euro Industrial Real Estate fund, has acquired three new warehouse properties for a combined value of €29.8 million and successfully disposed of an asset for €7.2 million. 

While in 2025 the capital expenditure of tech giants (hyperscalers) was the dream of investors, this year it is causing concern.

Edmond de Rothschild Corporate Finance advised Iris Group and its shareholders on the divestment of Iris Industry Solutions in a Management Buy-Out supported by Soudal Group and the subsidiary’s CEO, Jeroen Nevelsteen, marking a new chapter of growth and long-term Belgian entrepreneurship.

- Net inflows of €5.4 billion in 2025 and €17.5 billion cumulatively over five years, bringing assets under management to €107 billion.
- Strong commercial momentum across all geographies, with diversified inflows across different asset classes. 
- Major strategic developments to come in 2026

After more than two years in build, Gitana 18 is assuming the Maxi Edmond de Rothschild mantle. In early December, the very bold architectural concept behind this new flying maxi-trimaran was unveiled in spectacular fashion by Ariane de Rothschild.

•    This week's US data were mixed and led to some interest rate volatility.
•    In Europe, European leaders argued for structural reform, thereby driving expectations of a “European wake-up call”. Simultaneously, the Banque de France forecasts resilient French growth in the current quarter.
•    In Japan, Sanae Taikaichi’s resounding electoral win gave her an absolute majority in parliament and could help her roll out a programme which includes tax cuts and higher investment.

The US market is rebalancing, notably in favor of small-cap stocks, as it begins to penalize the heavy AI investments by tech giants whose profitability is uncertain.

The sharp drop in the software segment is deemed disproportionate. The market is underestimating the diversity of companies in the sector and ignoring the Jevons paradox, according to which lower costs related to AI will stimulate software demand.

In this context, we are increasing our exposure to emerging market and Japanese equities. In fixed income, we favour financial bonds, emerging market debt, and corporate hybrids, focusing on short and intermediate maturities.