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•    Donald Trump ended up abandoning his threat to raise EU tariffs to 50% in June and instead returned to talks on an agreement by July 9, the same date the White House expects to see other agreements reached.
•    European inflation came in at 1.9% in May, or below the ECB’s target so the bank was able to make a fresh 25bp cut this month.
•    In Asia, activity is weakening, with Caixin manufacturing PMI, an indication of momentum among export SMEs and private sector companies,  moving into contraction territory.

The US administration is pushing the idea that the protectionist phase will end around the July 4th celebrations and that it will then focus on a programme of tax cuts and deregulation, which investors seem to believe in. The draft budget being drawn up in Congress does indeed raise hopes of a net fiscal stimulus of around 1% of GDP.

•    Moody's withdrew the US's AAA rating due to rising debt, leading to an increase in US Treasury yields.  
•    A budget compromise proposed by the Trump administration was narrowly passed in the House of Representatives, including tax cuts as well as reductions in healthcare spending and green subsidies, but it still needs Senate approval, promising lengthy discussions.
•    In Europe, the trade threat could substantially hamper growth, while in Asia, China and Japan are already facing economic challenges, prompting authorities to implement monetary easing measures.

The EdR SICAV Global Resilience fund focuses on four key contemporary challenges: defense & cybersecurity, critical infrastructure, protection, and strategic resources. 

We are proud to see Kennet Partners, one of the expert teams of our Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management Private Equity platform, awarded with a "Deal of the Year" trophy at the Forvis Mazars Irish Investor Awards. 
Well done Team Kennet for the award and for supporting innovative Tech companies with additive value propositions in their next level of growth. 

•    The postponement of tariffs between the USA and China has brought relief to the markets, thereby reducing the likelihood of recession and inflation.
•    April's economic releases from the US have not yet shown any impact related to tariffs, with CPI inflation holding steady at 2.3%. However, the PPI figures reveal a slight acceleration in the prices of imported goods.
•    Government bond yields rose at the beginning of the week after the US-China truce, but the rise was held back by the US-Iran talks and US economic releases.

•    A meeting scheduled for this weekend between US and Chinese delegations suggests that both countries are ready to negotiate. 
•    Divergences are appearing among central banks: the Bank of England has cautiously cut rates, while the Fed has chosen to maintain rates, navigating between signs of slowing growth and inflationary pressures.
•    In Germany, Friedrich Merz was elected Chancellor after two votes in Parliament, an unprecedented event, but his determination reassured investors of future political stability.

So far this year, market performances have been essentially driven by political factors. Although the S&P500 index is now returning to its pre-Liberation Day levels, all indicators suggest that CEO and consumer confidence has dived since Trump’s announcements. The market rebound seems fuelled by a notion conveyed by the Trump administration that from July 4th, the government would turn the page on protectionism and switch to its tax cut and deregulation programmes

The world is changing rapidly - and not always for the better. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly tense, with extended conflicts, fragmentation of alliances, climate change, the resurgence of protectionism and the rise of populism. These dynamics are causing deep and lasting disruptions that challenge supply chains, economic stability, and population security.

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management won two awards in the 2025 edition of the Grands Prix des Sicav de Mieux Vivre Votre Argent. The awards list evaluates more than 1,600 funds available to savers and each year rewards the funds with the best performance over the last five years and over a five-year average.

•    The US administration is ready to talk to China about lowering tariffs to 50-65%, in exchange for concessions.
•    Uncertainty and trade tensions have weighed on macroeconomic data, with a slight deterioration in US and European PMI indices, and US companies now considering passing on higher costs in sales prices.
•    In the US, several members of the Federal Reserve are supporting a cautious approach to rate cuts, because of inflationary risks linked to the trade war. In Europe, the ECB's chief economist is not ruling out a rate cut in the near future.