Outlook
& news.

Within the space of a few hours, the US strategy towards Iran has undergone a dramatic U-turn. Under the threat of a US ultimatum, Tehran has agreed to reopen the Strait, whilst imposing conditions on this reopening. The Iranian authorities stated that it would be possible to pass through the strait in coordination with the armed forces and in compliance with ‘technical constraints’. On the US side, strikes have been suspended for two weeks to allow for peace talks to begin, whilst Israel has emphasised that the conflict in southern Lebanon is not part of the ceasefire agreement.

Edmond de Rothschild’s perspective on embedding private markets in diversified portfolios

•    The markets initially welcomed every sign of de-escalation: Government bond yields eased, equity markets rebounded and Brent crude fluctuated between $100-110.
•    Donald Trump’s address on Wednesday evening soured the mood. He said the war would be short, just another two to three weeks, but threatened to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if Washington's demands were not accepted. 
•    In China, March PMI hit a high not seen since March 2025, providing confirmation that manufacturing was resilient, while in Japan, the Tankan manufacturing index trended higher in the first quarter.

•    The week was dominated by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, followed by a relative lull with the postponement of the US ultimatum.
•    Negotiations with Iran remain highly complicated, as Tehran’s demands are largely incompatible with those of the United States and Israel, despite indirect contacts via intermediaries.
•    Several central banks have adopted a more hawkish tone in response to inflationary fears linked to rising energy prices, particularly the ECB, which now expects more than three rate hikes by the end of 2026.

Edmond de Rothschild Corporate Finance acted as financial advisor to Swiss Life Asset Managers France, alongside Clearwater Italy, on the acquisition of a real estate portfolio comprising selected premium resorts in Emilia‑Romagna (Italy). 

Strong business growth 

•    Three weeks after the US-Iran conflict began, there is no clear resolution in sight.
•    Meanwhile, US-China tensions persisted even though talks had resumed.
•    Central banks are caught between the energy shock and the risk that inflation expectations might de-anchor.

Wealthbriefing European Awards 2026

Euromoney Private Banking Awards 2026

In recent weeks, virtually all the attention of financial market participants has been focused on the conflict in the Middle East, with the state of trade flows through the Strait of Hormuz taking centre stage. Indeed, the Strait is a key choke point for maritime traffic. 

It has now been nearly three weeks since the conflict between the United States and Iran began—another geopolitical crisis in a world where the dividends of peace seem to have vanished for good. With every geopolitical incident, it is usual for superlatives to be thrown around to describe the gravity of the situation, but in this specific case, it is no exaggeration to say that this is the most significant crisis in the history of the oil market. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz had long been a tail-risk scenario in the minds of all investors—and perhaps in Donald Trump’s as well. But the U.S. president’s decision to overthrow the Iranian regime by eliminating its Supreme Leader on the very first day of the conflict has pushed Tehran to effectively block the world’s most important maritime chokepoint. Before the war, nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply passed through there. For nearly three weeks now, the world has lost nearly 12 Mb/d of oil flow, which is by far the largest supply disruption in history, far exceeding the 5 Mb/d lost during the two oil crises in the 70’s or the 4 Mb/d that disappeared during the two previous Gulf Wars in the 80’s and 90’s. 

Quantitative investing, sometimes referred to as systematic investing, has recently gained popularity and is actively sought after by many investors looking for stable performance and rigorous risk management. However, this type of investment is often seen as mechanical or opaque. In our view, quantitative investing provides a rigorous and transparent framework for structuring our investment convictions, combining systematic portfolio construction with the supervision of experienced portfolio managers to navigate increasingly complex equity markets.