Outlook
& news.

The restrictive monetary policies introduced by central banks in 2022 considerably increased the cost of financing for companies, leading to a sharp drop in primary issues on the credit market. This contraction was particularly marked in the High Yield segment, where the volume of new issues fell by almost 80% between the peak of 2021 and 2022. The gradual recovery observed in 2023 and 2024 was mainly concentrated on refinancing transactions.

The UK and EU need 15-20 million homes, equating to c. 2000 square kilometres of mixed-use living and workspace, over the next 15 years.    

Across the EU and the UK, regenerating only a part of the 19,000 km² of underused brownfield land and 300km² of vacant or under-utilised office space can meet the region’s housing and commercial space needs.    

This regeneration requires €4 trillion of investment, creating opportunities for investors.

•    OPEC+ decided to stick with current production cuts to keep oil prices around $75. 
•    As expected, the Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25bp amid slowing growth and inflation.
•    In China, employment and export orders resulted in indicators coming in lower than expected with services at 51 and industry at 50.1.

•    The arrival of DeepSeek, an AI aiming to be more efficient and cost-effective than ChatGPT, created a buzz among investors.
•    The reductions in public spending and the size of the federal administration planned by Donald Trump could have negative repercussions on economic activity and the labor market.
•    The ECB has lowered its key interest rates due to the slowdown in inflation and weak growth.

Here you can find the latest edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication by the Private Banking Investments team and experts from our Group.

•    Donald Trump reassured financial markets by delaying potentially inflationary measures, leading to a rise in equity markets.
•    Exchanges between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping helped mitigate the risks of a trade war, thus supporting a rebound in Chinese stocks.
•    Markets were bolstered by positive developments such as the ceasefire in Gaza, improved manufacturing PMI in Europe, and excellent fourth quarter figures in the US. 

•    Underlying inflation in the US has slowed more than expected.
•    In the United States, investors are now anticipating a rate cut in June rather than October.
•    The fall back in Treasury yields revived equity markets, with European indices doing particularly well.

While January is the month of wishes and good resolutions, what can we expect in terms of regulation for sustainable finance in Europe by 2025? In France, candidates for the competitive examination and students at the Institut national du service public (INSP), which has replaced the Ecole nationale d'administration (ENA) since 2022, have been working for decades on a similar question: more or less state? The right answer is a more EFFICIENT state. 

•    The president-elect’s very aggressive stance on foreign policy gave investors more cause to worry and US equities fell further and bond yields increased. 
•    The US labor market continues to show signs of strength, with rising job vacancies and falling unemployment registrations.
•    The UK saw the biggest surge in bond rates over the week. 10-year gilts hit an intraday high of 4.9%, a level not seen since 2008.

Edmond de Rothschild announces the appointment of Monika Vicandi as Chief Risk, Legal & Compliance Officer as of 15 January 2025.

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

•    The latest developments in Europe have failed to improve political visibility.
•    In the US, the economy is still proving resilient.
•    We are sticking with our tactically positive stance on equities with the accent on the US and China. Our strategic view on investment grade credit is unchanged.