Outlook
& news.

Overweighting US equities has become a consensual choice that nobody can deny today. This position is however likely to change during the coming months.

The theme of resilience, i.e investing in companies able to withstand further disruptions to the global production chain and a firmer pursuit of sovereignty and security, now occupies a central place. 

In the bond markets, we are unwinding our overweight on emerging bonds pending the arrival of the Trump administration, and increasing our exposure to subordinated financial bonds and corporate hybrids.

In France Michel Barnier’s government fell, ushering in a fresh bout of uncertainty. The technical government option now seems to be the most likely scenario. However, peripheral eurozone countries are enjoying some momentum, which has offset the negative impact of French and German difficulties.

Economic indicators in the US are still buoyant but less so as the economy gradually returns to normal.

In China, the situation is improving but gradually, with the Caixin manufacturing PMI rising for the second month running.

The fifth edition of the Trophées de la Finance Responsable, organised by Investissement Conseils magazine, took place in Paris yesterday. For the third year running, our Edmond de Rothschild SICAV Euro Sustainable Equity strategy, invested in eurozone equities and classified as ‘Article 9’ SFDR, won two awards:

- 1st prize in the ‘Eurozone Equities’ category
- 2nd prize in the ‘Carbone4 Finance Climate Prize’ category

We would like to warmly congratulate our management team dedicated to European equities, as well as the SRI team, for this award, which underlines the quality and relevance of our SRI approach.

Political tensions in France and also in Germany are inevitably weighing on PMIs.

Eurozone inflation has been slowing so the ECB can continue to reduce rates. 

Economic activity in the United States remains strong, while in Japan, inflation has resumed its upward trajectory.

The eurozone is still suffering from the conflict’s consequences and energy prices in particular are taking a toll as we enter winter.

The ECB is coming under increased pressure to ease its monetary policy and put a brake on the economic slowdown.

In Japan, the chances of the central bank tightening monetary policy are mixed.

As economic growth shows signs of overall resilience and interest rates begin to normalise, the High Yield market is now supported by a more favourable  environment.

Alexis Foret, Head of High Yield at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management (France), believes that bonds in this segment – with their attractive yields and rising average coupons – have all the characteristics to cater to investors’ every need.

The Republicans, under the leadership of D. Trump, have taken control of the House of Representatives.

Germany is preparing for political upheaval with a vote of confidence scheduled for December.

Markets have continued to rotate into exclusively US assets in another illustration of American exceptionalism.

Edmond de Rothschild announces the appointment of Nathalie Cerutti as Director of Corporate Social Responsibility. Nathalie joined the group on November 1st 2024.

Edmond de Rothschild Corporate Finance has advised the shareholders of Redslim and Andera Acto on the sale of a majority stake to Astorg Mid-Cap, to support the Company’s growth and international expansion, collaborating closely with the Founders and the management team. 

US growth proved resilient in the third quarter, but US employment data remain contradictory.

The eurozone figures were a pleasant surprise with France expanding more than expected.

Japan's ruling party failed to get a majority in the weekend elections, reinforcing political uncertainty.

Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management has appointed Victoire Dubrujeaud as High Yield Portfolio Manager-analyst in the fixed income team. She starts on 28 October 2024.

The ECB’s governors are worried about soft eurozone growth and considering accelerating interest rate cuts to stimulate the European economy.

In the UK, investors are concerned about the Labour government’s intention to change budget rules to allow it to borrow more.

In China, the initial enthusiasm following the rate cuts earlier this week has already fizzled out.