Outlook
& news.

The world order, whether economic, geopolitical, technological, or societal, is changing at a dizzying pace. Paradoxically, the constants of human nature manifest themselves with unwavering regularity.

•   After tensions escalated over Greenland, the tone eased following Donald Trump’s speech in Davos, in which he announced the suspension of planned tariff rises, the launch of talks with NATO and a tripartite meeting on Ukraine.

•   In Europe, France’s government opted for the 49.3 guillotine measure to get its draft budget for 2026 approved. The budget assumes the deficit this year will be around 5%, a less ambitious target than originally planned.

•   Amid rising geopolitical fragmentation, Beijing is trying to appear as a stable partner and has been reinforcing its diplomatic and trade ties, especially with Canada and Europe.

The previous quarter brought us the positive message of “cheaper, baby, cheaper!” in the context of COP 30, with renewable energies, particularly solar energy, becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels over the past 10 years, even without public subsidies. This dynamic is a key driver for the ongoing energy and environmental transition, with China providing a particularly illuminating example. It will be important to carefully read the environment/climate section of China's next five-year plan, which will be announced in March.

In our “Outlook & Convictions” video, Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM, explains how to approach the markets in 2026 with a cautious but aggressive approach, focused on diversification, resilience, and sovereignty.

By making the imposition of new tariffs conditional on Europe's acceptance of its plan to acquire Greenland, Donald Trump is taking a further step in the use of trade as an instrument of geopolitical constraint. The announcement of 10% taxes, which are set to rise to 25% from the summer, directly targets several European economic pillars, from France to Germany, the United Kingdom and the Nordic countries. 

•    Between public pressure on Jerome Powell and threats of intervention in Iran, Donald Trump is fuelling uncertainty; however, the Fed considers its monetary policy appropriate, and no rate cut is expected at the next meeting.
•    In Japan, the Prime Minister is considering dissolving parliament and calling early elections to strengthen her majority and ease the implementation of her stimulus agenda.
•    In Europe, long-term yields have fully played their role as a safe haven, falling over the week, while gold has continued to rise.

The current year has been marked by a significant rise in equity indices, but also by a particular performance with an extreme concentration on a few major stocks.

Amethis Investment Fund Manager S.A., the alternative investment fund manager dedicated to responsible long-term growth across Europe, Africa and the Middle East, together with its partner Edmond de Rothschild Private Equity, are pleased to announce the final closing of Amethis Fund III S.C.A., SICAV-RAIF , (“AFIII” or “the Fund”) in line with its target at EUR 406M.

Bond credit spreads have fallen over the past three years, prompting us to reassess the attractiveness of this asset class. 

Dominik Kremer joins Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management with the objective to further develop and drive business activities across liquid and illiquid capabilities in institutional and wholesale channels.

Making gold more responsible and traceable

•    The year began with Donald Trump’s shift to an interventionist and international policy.
•    Within the zone, activity data has remained positive and credit has continued to recover.
•    In this environment, we have maintained our approach with a modest positive allocation to fixed income, a neutral position on equities and a negative view on the dollar. Our constructive view on credit and emerging fixed income markets is unchanged.