Outlook
& news.

• Despite contradictory announcements from the Trump administration, markets reacted positively to the temporary tariff exemptions on Chinese technology imports and progress in trade talks with Japan.
• The Fed is taking a wait-and-see approach to avoid inflation expectations becoming unhinged, as the economic outlook worsens, despite solid US retail sales due to pre-tariff advance purchases. 
• The ECB is benefiting from the euro's appreciation, which gives it room for manoeuvre to ease monetary policy without worrying about the Fed's immobility.

•    China, being the only country not benefiting from the 90-day truce, faces extremely high tariffs, thereby intensifying trade tensions.
•    Uncertainties surrounding inflation and growth continue to rise, especially in the United States, heightening fears of a recession.
•    European retail sales were up in Q1 2025, confirming that business in Europe is holding up well.

We don't know when the Trump & Co. whirlwind will end. No one knows, and neither does he. Perhaps with the next US midterm elections in November 2026. In the meantime, the set of decisions taken has the immense merit of waking up Europe, and first and foremost, the European Union. Without waiting for Donald Trump to return to the White House, the old continent has been offered the roadmap for its economic revival set out in the Draghi report published in September 2024. 

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

Edmond de Rothschild announces the appointment of Eric de Tessières as Group Chief Sustainability Officer. Reporting to Cynthia Tobiano, Deputy CEO, Eric took up his post on 7 April. He will oversee all of the group’s sustainability initiatives, across asset management and private banking. 

•    D. Trump's "Liberation Day" announcements have heightened uncertainty for the markets and the Fed, with a series of tariffs on all imports except Canada (which is already hit by 25% tariffs) and Mexico.
•    Initial estimates forecast a contraction in the US GDP by -1.5% and an inflation increase of +1.5%.
•    In Europe, the euro's appreciation against the dollar and the expectation of competitive prices for Chinese products lacking outlets on the US market could mitigate the impact of these measures

After 30 years of «happy» globalization, the world is a changed place post-pandemic, hit by geopolitical risk and plagued by daily cyber-attacks, with citizens seeking protection. The stock market outlook is particularly attractive for companies exposed to the security theme, which offer investors and the general public the resilience they so desperately need. 

EPISO 6, a fund managed by Tristan Capital Partners and joint venture partner Edmond de Rothschild REIM, have acquired a c.136,000 sqm logistics development in Delta 3 - Dourges (Lille area).

•    Discussions between the U.S. and Russia on implementing the partial ceasefire in the Black Sea are hindered by Moscow's demand for lifted sanctions, maintaining inflation uncertainty related to grain exports.
•    The U.S. plans to impose new tariffs of 25% on countries acquiring Venezuelan oil and auto imports, coinciding with a stricter immigration policy that may impact supply chains and economic growth.
•    In Europe, positive effects from Germany’s stimulus plan are reflected in a slight rise in the IFO business climate index, although mixed manufacturing PMIs indicate ongoing sectoral challenges alongside disappointing services indices.

For almost three years now, AI has single-handedly dominated financial news headlines, generating a flurry of content and analysis. But never has it been so difficult to make a pragmatic assessment of its potential and its advancement.
The confusion today stems from three factors: first, technology is developing at a startling rate. I still remember, back in 2019, reading Architects of Intelligence: The truth about AI from the people building it, a collection of 23 lengthy interviews with the most eminent AI specialists at the time. The recent breakthroughs have undeniably taken the world by surprise - including executives at Meta and Microsoft, and even Elon Musk.

Investors were caught wrong-footed as they headed into 2025: they were expecting corporate tax cuts and deregulation; instead, they are facing a new trade war. Raised tariffs were understood to be bargaining tools to secure concessions, not a priority goal. 

•    In the United States, the Senate, with some Democrat support, managed to avoid a “shutdown” and prolong the budget until September, but some Trump administration decisions are fuelling worries.
•    Germany's spending plan is revitalizing the German and European economies, driving up European stock market indices.
•    The week was also marked by several central bank meetings.