Outlook
& news.

•    Washington sent letters to several countries announcing between 20-50% in tariffs and additional levies on products and goods that are re-exported to third countries as a way of sidestepping the increases.
•    France set an ambitious target of 4.6% for the government deficit in 2026. Meanwhile, the UK is struggling with a weak economy but that will allow the Bank of England to cut rates.
•    In China, consumer prices rose slightly but production prices continued to suffer from deflation.

Europe is going through a period of profound change - industrial, energy and geopolitical - which is redefining the conditions for its long-term economic development. Against this backdrop, the question of savings allocation takes on a strategic dimension.

We offer you an in-depth analysis of this central issue:
“Re-engaging European savings: a strategic imperative for sustainable growth”.

This document explores the concrete levers for redirecting private savings towards the real economy, with a view to sovereignty, innovation and sustainable transition.

Translated with DeepL.com (free version)

We are proud to be ranked among the Top 200 Asset Managers in Europe by Funds Europe

•    A trade agreement with Vietnam has been reached, while negotiations with the EU, Japan, India, and Korea are proceeding with difficulty.
•    So far the tariff war appears to be leaving little trace on the US economy, as illustrated by mixed labor market indicators. 
•    Both houses of Congress passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” in an even more expansive version than its initial draft.

•    H1 2025: major political issues, but no significant impact on market performance, apart from occasional volatility.
•    Points to watch for investors in the second half of the year: geopolitical risk, trade tensions and the US public deficit. 
•    Allocation point: slight underweighting of equities - particularly US equities - and of the dollar. On the bond side, avoid long-dated bonds, as the risk of recession remains moderate.
•    Positive views on Europe: the implementation of the Draghi plan could enable the continent to catch up, by boosting competitiveness and supporting industry and technology.

Asset allocation : Undaunted markets in a changing world
Benjamin Melman, Global CIO AM
 
The credit market, a new safe haven for investors! 
Alain Krief, Head of Fixed Income
 
European equities, a powerful new narrative
Caroline Gauthier, Co-Head of Equities 
 
International equities: The world's largest casino 
Jacques-Aurélien Marcireau, Co-Head of Equities

Management philosophy: Mission sovereignty : resilience in action
Aymeric Gastaldi, International Equities Manager & Anthony Penel, European Equities Manager

By Sébastien Cavernes, CIO Edmond de Rothschild Gestion (Monaco).

•    The US Secretary of commerce said around 10 trade deals had been signed, and progress is being made in discussions with China.
•    In Europe, the NATO countries, except Spain, agreed to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP.
•    Japan's PMI composite is expanding, contrasting with Europe’s PMI, particularly in France, where the political situation is fragile following the failed pensions working party.

Edmond de Rothschild Real Estate Investment Management (REIM) a nommé Klaus Schmitz au poste de Chief Investment Officer Europe et Executive Chairman de Edmond de Rothschild REIM UK, à compter du 1er septembre 2025.

•    Despite escalating tensions in the Middle East and recent statements from Donald Trump, investors remain broadly confident as long as the conflict does not spread and the Strait of Hormuz remains operational.
•    The One Big Beautiful Bill Act continues to face hurdles in Congress. Meanwhile, May’s economic indicators disappointed, with a decline in industrial production and weaker retail sales.
•    Neither the Fed, the Bank of England, nor the Bank of Japan altered their monetary policy. All three adopted a cautious tone, suggesting that any potential rate cuts will depend on the evolution of trade and geopolitical tensions.

Please find below the May edition of our Outlook & Convictions, a publication from the Private Banking Investments team and experts from our Group which presents our convictions for the equity and bond markets for the second quarter of 2025.

Reduced visibility on the global economic outlook in the current environment has tended to widen performance gaps between regions, companies and asset classes. This complexity is creating interesting pockets of differentiation, notably within bond segments - including emerging corporate debt.