Outlook
& news.

With the 10' podcasts, we'd like to share with you some of our key convictions on tomorrow's market trends.

“At Edmond de Rothschild, we think that all companies can contribute to the SDGs. First, by doing business responsibly and then by pursuing opportunities to solve societal challenges through business innovation and collaboration. As a signatory of the UN Global Compact, our Group is committed to participate in this global transformation. Our convictions to make a difference in the real economy have lead us to deploy 17 investment strategies reflecting the SDGs agenda. We also integrate the most significant SDGs for our industry across our operations and work intensively to support the transition to a more sustainable economic model.”

Alexia Breed, Sustainability Manager

Due to prolonged output cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia, Brent crude briefly topped $95, rekindling worries over inflation. European oil prices have gained 30% over the last three months and 10% alone so far this month. This is clearly a supply problem as other commodity prices have stayed relatively unchanged.

“It must be a battle. They (Chinese EV makers) are clearly very competitive in the electric car value chain. I think they are a generation ahead of us. We need to catch up very quickly.” Renault CEO Luca de Meo said in the Munich IAA car show.

The ECB raised rates for the tenth, and perhaps last, time in a row despite calls over the summer from central banks in Mediterranean countries to nurse growth in the eurozone.

At a dinner dedicated to technology stocks, if you want a consensus, all you have to do is mention your enthusiasm for the cybersecurity segment. This is understandable, given all the factors pushing in its favour. 

For this new episode, we went to Château Clarke, the first step in the family's winegrowing adventure. This 145-hectare estate in the heart of the Médoc reopened its doors in early June, after 3 years of titanic renovation.

Markets remained firmly focused on China and its property sector woes although there were a few signs growth was stabilising thanks to imports and demand for oil.

Markets rallied after the Jackson Hole Symposium. The Fed and ECB stuck to their cautious stance on inflation but said any rise would be data dependent. But then, key economic news concerning jobs and consumption in the US came in somewhat below expectations. The JOLTS (Job Openings) data fell from 9.17 million in June to 8.83 million in July, accentuating a trend first seen in January. And in a sign that staff were less confident about finding a new job, the number of resignations also fell. As for consumers, the Conference Board gauge fell more than expected in August. For the moment, these indicators suggest a return towards normal levels; they are in fact still high. Household spending, for example, rose 0.6% in July compared to June. The definitive GDP figure in the US was revised down to an annualised 2.1% which was less than expected. And PCE inflation indicators in the US rose by 0.2% MoM for the core element and 4.2% over a year, or in line with estimates.

Sharply lower PMIs in the US and Europe helped halt the rise in oil and bond prices that had pushed equity markets lower in August.

Risk assets have lost ground since the beginning of August. As August 15 is a national holiday in some countries, thin summer trading was accentuated as bond yields revisited recent highs and worries mounted over China’s property sector.